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The college football schedule is unique. It is composed of 12 games. The Big Ten requires that eight of those games be against conference foes.
The rest is more or less up to each school.
Each can load up the non-conference portion with “cupcakes,” easily beatable teams that will fatten a win-loss record without requiring more than standard effort.
Or schools can take on all comers, willing to play anyone, anywhere. They take on brutal road tests because they think you’ve got what it takes to come away unscathed. This type of approach is fearless; but is it smart?
Remember, college pigskin is a completely different animal than college hoops. Lose a dozen games on the hardwood and it doesn’t really matter.
Look no further than the Kentucky Wildcats, the national runner-up to Connecticut in the most recent NCAA Tournament. John Calipari’s squad was anything but perfect from November through February. They lost ten games before the Dance even began, including a pair of defeats to SEC also-ran Arkansas.
But it mattered not in the least. They started sizzling in March, won five in a row, including a squeaker against Michigan, and found themselves in the title game.
Try pulling off such a feat in college football. You won’t have any luck.
High Expectations
That world is all about perfection. If you play 12 games, it’s expected you come away with 12 wins. Be nice and they might let you slide with 11. Anything even a smidgen less and you risk having to watch the final game in pajamas from your dorm room.
Which brings us to the sport’s marquee early-season matchup Saturday night.
Michigan State will travel all the way out west to battle the vaunted, high-powered, almost-never-lose-at-home Oregon Ducks. In fact, virtually all of their home dates last year resulted in soul-crushing blowouts.
The Ducks smashed Tennessee by 45, then “let up” two weeks later, only defeating Cal by 39. They put up 62 on Washington State. They rocked one of the nation’s most underrated teams, UCLA, by four touchdowns. The only real scare they had (at home) was in the finale against in-state rival Oregon State, nipping the Beavers by just a point.
The point being; Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, is a very, very, difficult place to play football well. It is nearly impossible to come away with a W.
So if not forced, why go there at all? It’s an interesting debate.
On one hand, if the Spartans enter that ear-splitting dungeon on Saturday and emerge as victors, they essentially become viewed as the nation’s scariest team. Their ranking would shoot up, and the confidence gained from such a win could spur them on for the remainder of the year, if not the decade.
But most things worth having involve some element of risk. And as pointed out, this roadie is not just risky -- it’s almost a death wish.
The folks in Vegas (who usually know best) have installed the Ducks as near two-TD favorites over the Green and White. This despite Michigan State having rolled through last year’s schedule with 13 wins in 14 tries, many of which were conducted in dominant fashion.
So even though the Spartans are a top 10 squad and boast one of the country’s elite defensive units, make no mistake. A win in Eugene would qualify as a significant upset.
Odds Are Against the Spartans
Thus, the odds suggest that Mark Dantonio and the boys will fly back to the mitten late Saturday night a proud and courageous bunch -- but also one now toting a loss. And in the college football season, one loss can destroy championship dreams.
The clash of styles will make for a delicious bit of early season football theater. The electrifying, fast-paced Oregon offense against the ferocious, near-impenetrable Spartans defense. It’s dramatic enough to make the Michigan-Notre Dame game on the same night look like a glorified high school affair.
But the question remains -- if Michigan State’s ultimate goal for this 2014 campaign is to wind up being crowed National Champions, something they have not accomplished going on almost 50 years, is it prudent to schedule so ambitiously?
Last year, Team Sparty basically chilled out during their non-conference schedule. The year began with home dates against Western Michigan, South Florida, and Youngstown State. And if not for a slip up in South Bend (their one semi-challenging non-Big 10 foe), they would have likely found themselves in the title game.
A dizzying strength of schedule is all well and good, but it’s pretty much been proven over the years in college football that losing as few games as possible is the factor that matters most.
Go ahead and play 12 All-Star teams if that’s your prerogative. But the standards don’t change. Lose one game and you are on thin ice. Lose two and you’re put out to pasture.
Looking ahead, you see that the Spartans have a very friendly Big 10 schedule. Their road games come against Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, and Penn State. Wisconsin is missed completely. And with Ohio State now quarterback-less, it’s almost expected that the folks from East Lansing run the conference table.
It’s just a matter of getting to that point with their zero intact.
Dantonio and his program ought to be commended for their willingness to take on the best. It’s something you don’t often see in this sport. But it could come at a cost.
And it wasn’t one forced upon them; they weren’t stripped of their armor and thrown in the lions’ den against their will.
They opened the gate themselves and sauntered right in.
Confident -- yes. Unquestionably bold and brave -- yes.
But is the potential reward that comes with a victory worth the damage that a loss could bring?
That remains to be seen.
