by
Rick Porcello
Goodbye, Rick Porcello.
Hello, Yoenis Céspedes.
And welcome to another rousing round of, “Do the fans love it or hate it, featuring Detroit’s favorite polarizing general manager, Dave Dombrowski?”
In a trade sure to generate strong opinions on both sides, the Tigers will send Porcello, a 15-game winner entering the prime of his career (will be 26 in two weeks), for the notoriously allergic-to-on-base-percentage Cuban outfielder Céspedes.
Porcello had a banner year for the Tigers in 2014. He carried the rotation for stretches, throwing over 200 innings for the first time in his career and posting a very handsome 3.43 ERA in the process. He fired an AL-leading three shutouts, an almost astronomical figure in today’s bullpen-heavy game.
It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, however. His stretch run was shockingly bad, giving up 49 hits in hist last six starts, all Tiger losses. Half of those starts saw him hitting the showers before completing four full frames. So while the 204 innings look good on paper, he got there huffing and puffing across the finish line.
An Eventful Summer
Céspedes had an eventful summer in 2014. He did his usual thing for the Athletics, socking homers, driving in clutch runs, and impressing no one with his batting average.
Then, despite the A’s sitting comfortably in first place, Billy Beane stunned the baseball world by jettisoning his cleanup man across the country to Boston in exchange for Jon Lester. Contending teams rarely deal such integral pieces of their lineup midway through the year, and you wonder if Beane knew something the rest of us didn’t.
His time in Boston was rarely uneventful. Céspedes swatted just five homers in 51 games. His final month was not dissimilar from Porcello’s, experiencing a worrisome lack of clout in which he sent just one ball over the fence in his final 138 times at bat. All told, his Oak-Bos combined numbers came to 22 HR and 100 RBIs -- solid figures to be sure, but not necessarily the type of “Wow!” factor that will send Tigers’ fans streaming to the merchandise store to snap up a #52 jersey.
The main criticism you will hear regarding the Cuban slugger relates to his on-base-percentage. While the best guys like Miguel Cabrera routinely reach base safely about 40 percent of the time, Céspedes does so closer to 30. It’s a dramatic difference. He walked just 35 times in 645 plate appearances last year, offering a striking resemblance to late-career Alfonso Soriano that no respectable ballplayer wants part of.
Both Porcello and Céspedes will hit free agency next winter, with the former likely attracting a contract north of 100 million. The move today suggests the Tigers had no interest in signing up for such a package.
And there’s certainly logic behind that line of thinking, too. While Porcello finally came into his own in ’14, there were a slew of seasons prior in which he just kind of skittered along. Ten wins one year, 14 the next, a good start here, a train wreck the next time out. His consistency was his inconsistency, and those in agreement with today’s move will say that the 2009-2013 Porcello is the real Ricky P, this most recent version representing nothing more than a season-long aberration.
More Trades
Only time will tell, and Dombrowski likely has a trade or two left in him that will steady the rotation again.
But there is something a bit unsettling about grooming Porcello for all these years, watching him grow and mature into a dominant American League pitcher, only to send him packing just as he enters the prime of his career.
If Céspedes comes to Motown, whacks 35 homers, and showcases his cannon arm, Porcello and his wicked sinker will be forgotten. But if he flounders, striking out too much and finding the left-center field wall unreachable, the cries for Dombrowski’s head will be frequent and without restraint.
It’s a risky move. Ten years from now, it might be perceived as having given away the golden goose just before it laid its first eggs.
But you can’t say Dombrowski is afraid to pull the trigger. No matter how unpopular, he’s always been willing to take his shot. The old baseball axiom is that you can never have enough starting pitching.
Today, such wisdom was shoved aside. Out with the old, in with the new. But change for the sake of change is a dangerous proposition.
A year from now, the dust will have settled and we’ll determine who won this swap of almost-stars.
Today, it’s just a mound of uncertainty, and a fan base split right down the middle.
