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(Update) Yashinsky: MSU Storylines for the Big Dance

March 20, 2015, 9:38 AM by  Joey Yashinsky

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Update: MSU defeats Georgia 70-63 on Friday night.

Don’t Let Lightning Strike Twice 

The whole setup of this game against Georgia is very reminiscent of the 2002 NCAA Tournament.    

In that tourney, Michigan State was slotted for the early afternoon game on Friday, to take place at 12:15.  The same goes for this year, with tip time slated for a little after noon (12:40).

Like today’s affair, that ’02 game was also a 7 vs. 10 matchup seed-wise, though in that bracket, the Spartans were the lower-seeded club.

The opponent back then, North Carolina State, is similar to this year’s foe, Georgia.  The Wolfpack were a solid, but unspectacular team from the south coming off a decent regular season (8-7 in the ACC).  Georgia in 2015 also fumbled its way through parts of the regular season, picking up losses to some of the worst the SEC has to offer (Auburn, South Carolina x 2).  

Spartan historians will remember that the 2002 game was pleasant for a half, then very rude for the remainder.  MSU led NC State by double-digits heading to the break, then got blasted 51-28 in the final 20 minutes.  The Wolfpack and lanky guard Anthony Grundy celebrated the opening round victory.

The 2015 Spartans hope this year follows a different script.

Must Cash In at the Line

The circus that has become Michigan State at the free throw line needs to stop.  

There is no reason that Travis Trice, a very good outside shooter with a soft touch, should be hitting on less than 70% of his free throws.

Branden Dawson is a senior with hopes of one day seeing his name on an NBA roster.  A career-low 50% from the stripe in his final year of college ball is definitely not the way to make that dream a reality.

Tom Izzo’s bunch did redeem themselves a bit in the Big Ten Championship by connecting on 9-for-9 at the line.  While perfection is not a requirement, something close to it will need to be there in order for Michigan State to even think about weaving their way through this treacherous bracket.  

Beating a lesser light such as Georgia might still allow for some free throw shenanigans, but with super-stingy Virginia looming two days later, the hijinks will have to end there or it’ll be curtains for the boys from East Lansing.

Bryn Forbes the X-Factor

Michigan State generally has three guys they can count on to score: Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice, and Branden Dawson.  It’s a very respectable trio.  But it’s not quite enough to carry a team all the way through to the Final Four.

Enter Bryn Forbes, one of the Spartans more unpredictable performers.  As a guy that will usually log around 20 minutes a night off the pine, and a guy you could probably classify as having the team’s most accurate stroke from downtown, the success or lack thereof from Forbes could go a long way in determining this team’s fate.

He’s already shown the ability to play at a very high level against top competition.  Earlier this month, Forbes was the Spartans’ best player in their trip to the dungeon that is the Kohl Center to take on Wisconsin.  Forbes buried all five of his triple tries that afternoon, tallying 21 points in just 23 minutes.  

The issue is that in the three games immediately following, Forbes tossed up ten from long range and missed every single one of them.  

That streakiness from an off-the-bench X-factor is often what makes or breaks mid-level contending teams like this year’s Spartans.

Keep Up First Round Dominance

This will be Michigan State’s 18th consecutive trip to the Big Dance, a streak that commands nationwide hoops respect.  And the stay for Sparty is very rarely a brief one.

In fact, only four times during this stretch has Michigan State seen its tournament come to an end after one game: the aforementioned meltdown against NC State, a 2004 loss to Nevada and future pro Kirk Snyder, a 2006 defeat to that year’s cinderella, George Mason, and then a forgettable loss to a mediocre UCLA team in 2011.  

The rest of the time, Izzo gets his group over that first hurdle.  History is on Sparty’s side in the next round, too; only once in this near two-decade stretch (2007) did Michigan State lose their second game of the tournament.  

To summarize, the Green & White have played in the last 17 NCAA tourneys, and advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen in 12 of them.  

This year’s club might not seem so imposing after an uneven regular season, but if the last 20 years of madness have taught us anything, it is to not count a Tom Izzo team out in the month of March.

 



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