The Road To 270: The State Of The Presidential Race On 09/17/2012

Cartogram of Huff Post/Pollster's election analysis. Each state is represented by a circle scaled to the size of their electoral vote.

September 17th, 2012, 9:48 AM

As of writing, here is what the best polling analysts and aggregators say the presidential race currently looks like based on state-by-state polling data.

Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight: Silver’s “Now-cast” regression analysis awards Obama 318.1 Electoral Votes and Romney 219.9 EVs, if the election were held today. He gives Obama a 90.6% chance of winning the November election. (Week over week: Obama +9.6 EV)

RealClearPolitics: Obama 237, Romney 191, 126 up for grabs in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin. (Week over week: Obama +16 EV)

HuffPost Pollster: Obama 316, Romney 206, 16 up for grabs in Iowa and Wisconsin. (Week over week: Obama +69 EV)

Electoral-Vote.com: 332 Obama (208 “Strongly Dem,” 33 “Likely Dem,” 91 “Barely Dem”) Romney 206 (128 “Strongly GOP,” 53 “Likely GOP,” 25 “Barely GOP”) According to the site: “strong means support of 10% or more; weak means 5% to 9%, and barely means less than 5%.” (Week over week: Romney +15 EV)

CNN: Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)

Fox News/Karl Rove: Obama 225, Romney 191, 122 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)

MSNBC: Obama 237, Romney 191, 110 up for grabs in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. (Week over week: No change)