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John James and Carl Marlinga
Former Macomb County judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga, a Democrat, leads incumbent Republican Congressman John James in the latest poll 49-43 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
The poll, conducted July 14-15 by Target Insyght of Lansing, in partnership with Deadline Detroit, has an error of margin of plus or minus 5 points. Both candidates are expected to win their primary in August and square off in November for the 10th Congressional District seat, which includes parts of Macomb and Oakland counties.
The poll of 400 people, taken before James' speech Monday night at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, shows James with a 52 percent unfavorable rating and a 29 percent favorable one. Another 18 percent don't know who he is, or are undecided.
Marlinga has a 42 percent favorable rating compared to 18 percent unfavorable. Another 40 percent -- considered a very large number -- don't know who is he, or are undecided.
Among Republicans, the poll shows 87 percent support GOP incumbent James, while 13 percent favor Democrat Marlinga. Conversely, 91 percent of the Democrats support Marlinga while 5 percent support James. Another 4 percent are undecided.
Among Independents, Marlinga leads James 38-30 percent, with 32 percent undecided.
"The numbers show John James is not strong among Republicans," said Ed Sarpolus, executive director of Target Insyght, which conducted the poll. "He's losing a number of Republican voters to Carl Marlinga who is very strong among Democrats."
Sarpolus explained that the high number of people in the poll who are undecided or don't know who Marlinga is, could pose a problem.
"If Carl Marlinga loses," Sarpolus said, "it's most likely because the Democrats didn't fund him like they didn't fund him in 2022 when he lost to James."
In 2022, James, who outspent Marlinga 5-1, eked out a victory, beating Marlinga 48.8 percent to 48.3 percent.
Among Blacks, the poll showed 35 percent favored James compared to 29 percent for Marlinga. Another 36 percent were undecided.
Among Whites, Marlinga leads James 54-40 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
Among women in the poll, James leads Marlinga 47-46, with 6 percent undecided. Among men, Marlinga leads James 53-38, with 9 percent undecided.
